Xera OpenScience · Living systematic review
Does the emulation match the trial?
Every published target trial emulation that reports a randomized benchmark, paired with the trial it emulates. 474 comparisons from 129 studies, of which 279 cleared the benchmark gate and enter the pooled models.
Studies
129
2019–2026
Comparisons
474
279 in the pooled analysis
Target trials
94
named randomized benchmarks
Interval coverage
53.4%
46.1%–61.3% (95% CI)
The finding
No systematic bias on average. Wide disagreement case by case.
Pooled ratio of estimates · HR
1.02
95% CrI 0.96 to 1.07
Emulation divided by trial hazard ratio, across 228 comparisons. An interval straddling 1 means no detectable average bias in either direction.
Prediction interval
0.68–1.52
τ = 0.12 on the log scale
Where the next comparison would be expected to land. The average is reassuring; any single emulation is not.
Interval coverage
53.4%
149 of 279 comparisons
How often the emulation’s 95% interval contains the trial estimate. A well-calibrated method would sit near 95%.
Where they diverge
The widest disagreements
| Study | Outcome | Trial | Emulation | Apart | Intervals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baptiste 2024 Cardiology | Cough vs ONTARGET | 0.26 RR | 1.29 | 12.6 SE | no overlap |
| Garry 2022 Critical care | 28-day mortality vs RECOVERY | 0.82 HR | 1.32 | 5.8 SE | no overlap |
| Hu 2024 Endocrinology | Anemia event occurrence or anemia treatment initiation vs DAPA-CKD | 0.39 HR | 0.80 | 5.7 SE | no overlap |
| Suissa 2024 Pulmonology | Exacerbations vs IMPACT | 0.85 HR | 1.13 | 5.3 SE | no overlap |
| Wang 2023 All areas | Moderate or severe COPD exacerbation vs IMPACT | 0.85 HR | 1.13 | 5.3 SE | no overlap |
Clinical areas
Oncology32
Cardiology31
Endocrinology13
Rheumatology7
Orthopedics5
Critical care4
Neurology4
Nephrology3
Effect measures
HR304 · 228 pooled
RR110 · 34 pooled
MD30 · 15 pooled
RD14 · 2 pooled
OR13 · 0 pooled
SMD3 · 0 pooled
Reported practice
COI declaration93.0%
Funding disclosure93.0%
Protocol registration16.3%
Data availability10.1%
Code availability17.1%
DAG reported14.7%
QBA performed14.7%
A disclosure count, not a quality score: a data link does not prove the data are reusable.
Most recent
Latest emulations
An 2026 — Clinically localized prostate cancer
6 comparisons6 pooled
Chen 2026 — Drug-induced QT prolongation
1 comparison1 pooledQBA
Fan 2026 — Heart failure
2 comparisons
Gavoille 2026 — Multiple sclerosis
8 comparisons4 pooled
Li 2026 — Heart failure in sinus rhythm
1 comparison1 pooled
Li 2026 — Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction
1 comparison1 pooled